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2026 Midterms forecast

Sapien’s call for every Senate and governor race and the 57 closest House seats, published before polls open on 3 November 2026.

Sapien Team
Sapien 2026 Midterms forecast: Democrats win both chambers. Portraits of Roy Cooper (North Carolina, 97%), Troy Jackson (Maine, 84%), James Talarico (Texas, 60%), Adam Hamilton (Kansas, 59%) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio, 55%), the five Republican-held Senate seats Democrats flip. Democrats have a 69% chance of winning the Senate (projected 52–48, 80% range 48–55 Democratic seats) and a 94% chance of winning the House (projected 237–198, range 220–255). Projected governors from 36 races: 22 Democratic, 14 Republican.

This is Sapien’s forecast for the 2026 US midterm elections. We are publishing it before polls open on 3 November and will not change it afterwards. The date on this page and the PDF at the bottom are the record of what we predicted.

It covers all 35 Senate races, all 36 governor races and the 57 House seats where the trailing candidate has at least a 20% chance. The forecast is built from public polling and past results. Each card shows each candidate’s chance of winning, and their projected share of the two-candidate vote with an 80% range.

We’ll announce the forecast on our social channels, and once results are in we’ll share there how each call turned out.

Senate

Democrats win the Senate in 69% of outcomes, with a projected 52–48 split: they hold their 47 seats and flip five held by Republicans, in North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Kansas and Ohio. Within each group below, Democratic-favoured races come first.

Toss-up · 3 races (leader under 60%)

Ohio special Senate forecast: Sherrod Brown (Democrat) 55% chance to win, projected 50.4% of the vote (80% range 47–53); Jon Husted (Republican) 45%, projected 49.6% (47–53).View full size ↗
Kansas Senate forecast: Adam Hamilton (Democrat) 59% chance to win, projected 50.5% of the vote (80% range 47–54); Roger Marshall (Republican) 41%, projected 49.5% (46–53).View full size ↗
Iowa Senate forecast: Josh Turek (Democrat) 45% chance to win, projected 49.7% of the vote (80% range 47–53); Ashley Hinson (Republican) 55%, projected 50.3% (47–53).View full size ↗

Lean · 4 races (leader 60–79%)

Texas Senate forecast: James Talarico (Democrat) 60% chance to win, projected 50.8% of the vote (80% range 47–54); Ken Paxton (Republican) 40%, projected 49.2% (46–53).View full size ↗
Michigan Senate forecast: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) 79% chance to win, projected 52.0% of the vote (80% range 49–55); Mike Rogers (Republican) 21%, projected 48.0% (45–51).View full size ↗
Alaska Senate forecast: Mary Peltola (Democrat) 37% chance to win, projected 48.9% of the vote (80% range 44–54); Dan S. Sullivan (Republican) 63%, projected 51.1% (46–56).View full size ↗
South Carolina Senate forecast: Annie Andrews (Democrat) 29% chance to win, projected 48.5% of the vote (80% range 45–52); Darline Graham (Republican) 71%, projected 51.5% (48–55).View full size ↗

Likely · 4 races (leader 80–94%)

Maine Senate forecast: Troy Jackson (Democrat) 84% chance to win, projected 52.4% of the vote (80% range 49–56); Susan Collins (Republican) 16%, projected 47.6% (44–51).View full size ↗
Minnesota Senate forecast: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) 92% chance to win, projected 53.4% of the vote (80% range 50–56); Michele Tafoya (Republican) 8%, projected 46.6% (44–50).View full size ↗
Nebraska Senate forecast: Dan Osborn (independent) 19% chance to win, projected 47.8% of the vote (80% range 45–51); Pete Ricketts (Republican) 81%, projected 52.2% (49–55).View full size ↗
Mississippi Senate forecast: Scott Colom (Democrat) 15% chance to win, projected 46.2% of the vote (80% range 42–51); Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican) 85%, projected 53.8% (49–58).View full size ↗

Safe · 24 races (leader 95% or higher)

New Hampshire Senate forecast: Chris Pappas (Democrat) 95% chance to win, projected 53.9% of the vote (80% range 51–57); John E. Sununu (Republican) 5%, projected 46.1% (43–49).View full size ↗
Georgia Senate forecast: Jon Ossoff (Democrat) 96% chance to win, projected 55.0% of the vote (80% range 51–59); Mike Collins (Republican) 4%, projected 45.0% (41–49).View full size ↗
Virginia Senate forecast: Mark Warner (Democrat) 97% chance to win, projected 59.9% of the vote (80% range 53–66); Bert Mizusawa (Republican) 3%, projected 40.1% (34–47).View full size ↗
North Carolina Senate forecast: Roy Cooper (Democrat) 97% chance to win, projected 55.3% of the vote (80% range 52–59); Michael Whatley (Republican) 3%, projected 44.7% (41–48).View full size ↗
New Jersey Senate forecast: Cory Booker (Democrat) 98% chance to win, projected 61.0% of the vote (80% range 54–68); Justin Murphy (Republican) 2%, projected 39.0% (32–46).View full size ↗
Delaware Senate forecast: Chris Coons (Democrat) 99% chance to win, projected 64.6% of the vote (80% range 57–72); Michael Katz (Republican) 1%, projected 35.4% (28–43).View full size ↗
New Mexico Senate forecast: Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) 99% chance to win, projected 59.0% of the vote (80% range 54–64); Larry Marker (Republican) 1%, projected 41.0% (36–46).View full size ↗
Illinois Senate forecast: Juliana Stratton (Democrat) 99% chance to win, projected 58.5% of the vote (80% range 54–63); Don Tracy (Republican) 1%, projected 41.5% (37–46).View full size ↗
Massachusetts Senate forecast: Ed Markey (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 66.4% of the vote (80% range 63–70); John Deaton (Republican) 0%, projected 33.6% (30–37).View full size ↗
Rhode Island Senate forecast: Jack Reed (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 66.7% of the vote (80% range 63–70); Raymond McKay (Republican) 0%, projected 33.3% (30–37).View full size ↗
Colorado Senate forecast: John Hickenlooper (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 60.0% of the vote (80% range 55–65); Mark Baisley (Republican) 0%, projected 40.0% (35–45).View full size ↗
Oregon Senate forecast: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 63.5% of the vote (80% range 57–70); David Brock Smith (Republican) 0%, projected 36.5% (30–43).View full size ↗
Florida special Senate forecast: Angie Nixon (Democrat) 5% chance to win, projected 46.0% of the vote (80% range 43–49); Ashley Moody (Republican) 95%, projected 54.0% (51–57).View full size ↗
Tennessee Senate forecast: Marquita Bradshaw (Democrat) 3% chance to win, projected 39.0% of the vote (80% range 31–47); Bill Hagerty (Republican) 97%, projected 61.0% (53–69).View full size ↗
Louisiana Senate forecast: Jamie Davis (Democrat) 2% chance to win, projected 42.7% of the vote (80% range 38–47); Julia Letlow (Republican) 98%, projected 57.3% (53–62).View full size ↗
Arkansas Senate forecast: Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) 2% chance to win, projected 42.3% of the vote (80% range 38–47); Tom Cotton (Republican) 98%, projected 57.7% (53–62).View full size ↗
South Dakota Senate forecast: Brian Bengs (independent) 2% chance to win, projected 43.9% of the vote (80% range 40–48); Mike Rounds (Republican) 98%, projected 56.1% (52–60).View full size ↗
Kentucky Senate forecast: Charles Booker (Democrat) 1% chance to win, projected 41.6% of the vote (80% range 37–46); Andy Barr (Republican) 99%, projected 58.4% (54–63).View full size ↗
Oklahoma Senate forecast: N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (Democrat) 1% chance to win, projected 37.9% of the vote (80% range 31–45); Kevin Hern (Republican) 99%, projected 62.1% (55–69).View full size ↗
Idaho Senate forecast: Todd Achilles (independent) 0% chance to win, projected 36.6% of the vote (80% range 30–43); Jim Risch (Republican) 100%, projected 63.4% (57–70).View full size ↗
Alabama Senate forecast: Everett Wess (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 39.4% of the vote (80% range 36–43); Barry Moore (Republican) 100%, projected 60.6% (57–64).View full size ↗
Montana Senate forecast: Alani Bankhead (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 33.0% of the vote (80% range 29–37); Kurt Alme (Republican) 100%, projected 67.0% (63–71).View full size ↗
West Virginia Senate forecast: Rachel Fetty Anderson (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 31.8% of the vote (80% range 25–38); Shelley Moore Capito (Republican) 100%, projected 68.2% (62–75).View full size ↗
Wyoming Senate forecast: James W. Byrd (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 31.2% of the vote (80% range 25–38); Harriet Hageman (Republican) 100%, projected 68.8% (62–75).View full size ↗

Governors

Of the 36 governor races, we project 22 Democratic and 14 Republican winners.

Toss-up · 2 races (leader under 60%)

Georgia governor forecast: Keisha Lance Bottoms (Democrat) 56% chance to win, projected 50.4% of the vote (80% range 47–53); Rick Jackson (Republican) 44%, projected 49.6% (47–53).View full size ↗
Alaska governor forecast: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrat) 49% chance to win, projected 49.9% of the vote (80% range 46–54); Dave Bronson (Republican) 51%, projected 50.1% (46–54).View full size ↗

Lean · 4 races (leader 60–79%)

Nevada governor forecast: Aaron Ford (Democrat) 68% chance to win, projected 51.4% of the vote (80% range 48–55); Joe Lombardo (Republican) 32%, projected 48.6% (45–52).View full size ↗
Ohio governor forecast: Amy Acton (Democrat) 72% chance to win, projected 51.5% of the vote (80% range 48–55); Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) 28%, projected 48.5% (45–52).View full size ↗
Kansas governor forecast: Cindy Holscher (Democrat) 27% chance to win, projected 48.5% of the vote (80% range 45–52); Ty Masterson (Republican) 73%, projected 51.5% (48–55).View full size ↗
Texas governor forecast: Gina Hinojosa (Democrat) 26% chance to win, projected 48.1% of the vote (80% range 45–52); Greg Abbott (Republican) 74%, projected 51.9% (48–55).View full size ↗

Likely · 10 races (leader 80–94%)

Oregon governor forecast: Tina Kotek (Democrat) 80% chance to win, projected 53.0% of the vote (80% range 48–58); Christine Drazan (Republican) 20%, projected 47.0% (42–52).View full size ↗
Vermont governor forecast: Amanda Janoo (Democrat) 82% chance to win, projected 53.4% of the vote (80% range 49–58); Phil Scott (Republican) 18%, projected 46.6% (42–51).View full size ↗
Wisconsin governor forecast: David Crowley (Democrat) 85% chance to win, projected 53.0% of the vote (80% range 49–57); Tom Tiffany (Republican) 15%, projected 47.0% (43–51).View full size ↗
Iowa governor forecast: Rob Sand (Democrat) 87% chance to win, projected 52.8% of the vote (80% range 50–56); Zach Lahn (Republican) 13%, projected 47.2% (44–50).View full size ↗
Arizona governor forecast: Katie Hobbs (Democrat) 88% chance to win, projected 52.8% of the vote (80% range 50–56); Andy Biggs (Republican) 12%, projected 47.2% (44–50).View full size ↗
New Mexico governor forecast: Deb Haaland (Democrat) 88% chance to win, projected 54.2% of the vote (80% range 50–59); Gregg Hull (Republican) 12%, projected 45.8% (41–50).View full size ↗
Michigan governor forecast: Jocelyn Benson (Democrat) 89% chance to win, projected 53.0% of the vote (80% range 50–56); John James (Republican) 11%, projected 47.0% (44–50).View full size ↗
Florida governor forecast: David Jolly (Democrat) 15% chance to win, projected 47.5% of the vote (80% range 44–51); Byron Donalds (Republican) 85%, projected 52.5% (49–56).View full size ↗
Oklahoma governor forecast: Cyndi Munson (Democrat) 9% chance to win, projected 45.2% of the vote (80% range 41–50); Mike Mazzei (Republican) 91%, projected 54.8% (50–59).View full size ↗
New Hampshire governor forecast: Cinde Warmington (Democrat) 7% chance to win, projected 46.5% of the vote (80% range 43–50); Kelly Ayotte (Republican) 93%, projected 53.5% (50–57).View full size ↗

Safe · 20 races (leader 95% or higher)

Colorado governor forecast: Phil Weiser (Democrat) 97% chance to win, projected 59.6% of the vote (80% range 53–66); Victor Marx (Republican) 3%, projected 40.4% (34–47).View full size ↗
California governor forecast: Xavier Becerra (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 64.0% of the vote (80% range 61–67); Steve Hilton (Republican) 0%, projected 36.0% (33–39).View full size ↗
Connecticut governor forecast: Ned Lamont (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 61.2% of the vote (80% range 57–66); Ryan Fazio (Republican) 0%, projected 38.8% (34–43).View full size ↗
Massachusetts governor forecast: Maura Healey (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 63.4% of the vote (80% range 60–67); Mike Minogue (Republican) 0%, projected 36.6% (33–40).View full size ↗
Maryland governor forecast: Wes Moore (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 69.3% of the vote (80% range 63–76); Dan Cox (Republican) 0%, projected 30.7% (24–37).View full size ↗
New York governor forecast: Kathy Hochul (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 58.0% of the vote (80% range 55–61); Bruce Blakeman (Republican) 0%, projected 42.0% (39–45).View full size ↗
Pennsylvania governor forecast: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 63.0% of the vote (80% range 59–67); Stacy Garrity (Republican) 0%, projected 37.0% (33–41).View full size ↗
Rhode Island governor forecast: Helena Foulkes (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 69.5% of the vote (80% range 66–73); Aaron Guckian (Republican) 0%, projected 30.5% (27–34).View full size ↗
Hawaii governor forecast: Josh Green (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 66.7% of the vote (80% range 60–73); Gary Cordery (Republican) 0%, projected 33.3% (27–40).View full size ↗
Minnesota governor forecast: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 56.7% of the vote (80% range 54–60); Lisa Demuth (Republican) 0%, projected 43.3% (40–46).View full size ↗
Illinois governor forecast: JB Pritzker (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 59.6% of the vote (80% range 55–64); Darren Bailey (Republican) 0%, projected 40.4% (36–45).View full size ↗
Maine governor forecast: Hannah Pingree (Democrat) 100% chance to win, projected 56.4% of the vote (80% range 53–60); Robert B. Charles (Republican) 0%, projected 43.6% (40–47).View full size ↗
Nebraska governor forecast: Lynne Walz (Democrat) 4% chance to win, projected 45.6% of the vote (80% range 43–49); Jim Pillen (Republican) 96%, projected 54.4% (51–57).View full size ↗
South Carolina governor forecast: Jermaine Johnson (Democrat) 3% chance to win, projected 43.6% of the vote (80% range 39–48); Alan Wilson (Republican) 97%, projected 56.4% (52–61).View full size ↗
Tennessee governor forecast: Jerri Green (Democrat) 2% chance to win, projected 41.5% of the vote (80% range 36–47); Marsha Blackburn (Republican) 98%, projected 58.5% (53–64).View full size ↗
Alabama governor forecast: Doug Jones (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 42.1% of the vote (80% range 38–46); Tommy Tuberville (Republican) 100%, projected 57.9% (54–62).View full size ↗
Arkansas governor forecast: Fredrick Love (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 38.0% of the vote (80% range 33–43); Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican) 100%, projected 62.0% (57–67).View full size ↗
Idaho governor forecast: Terri Pickens (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 37.6% of the vote (80% range 33–42); Brad Little (Republican) 100%, projected 62.4% (58–67).View full size ↗
South Dakota governor forecast: Dan Ahlers (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 38.9% of the vote (80% range 35–43); Larry Rhoden (Republican) 100%, projected 61.1% (57–65).View full size ↗
Wyoming governor forecast: Kenneth Casner (Democrat) 0% chance to win, projected 31.2% of the vote (80% range 25–38); Eric Barlow (Republican) 100%, projected 68.8% (62–75).View full size ↗

House

Democrats win the House in 94% of outcomes, with a projected 237–198 split. These are the 57 closest seats.

Toss-up · 14 races (leader under 60%)

Florida 14th district House forecast: Kathy Castor (Democrat) 50% chance to win, projected 50.0% of the vote (80% range 45–55); Mike Beltran (Republican) 50%, projected 50.0% (45–55).View full size ↗
Ohio 7th district House forecast: Brian Poindexter (Democrat) 50% chance to win, projected 50.0% of the vote (80% range 45–55); Max Miller (Republican) 50%, projected 50.0% (45–55).View full size ↗
Missouri 2nd district House forecast: Fred Wellman (Democrat) 52% chance to win, projected 50.2% of the vote (80% range 46–55); Ann Wagner (Republican) 48%, projected 49.8% (45–54).View full size ↗
Wisconsin 3rd district House forecast: Rebecca Cooke (Democrat) 56% chance to win, projected 50.9% of the vote (80% range 44–57); Derrick Van Orden (Republican) 44%, projected 49.1% (43–56).View full size ↗
New York 17th district House forecast: Cait Conley (Democrat) 56% chance to win, projected 50.5% of the vote (80% range 46–55); Mike Lawler (Republican) 44%, projected 49.5% (45–54).View full size ↗
Iowa 1st district House forecast: Christina Bohannan (Democrat) 59% chance to win, projected 51.2% of the vote (80% range 45–58); Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Republican) 41%, projected 48.8% (42–55).View full size ↗
Michigan 10th district House forecast: Christina Hines (Democrat) 59% chance to win, projected 51.1% of the vote (80% range 45–58); Mike Bouchard (Republican) 41%, projected 48.9% (42–55).View full size ↗
Iowa 2nd district House forecast: Lindsay James (Democrat) 47% chance to win, projected 49.8% of the vote (80% range 45–54); Joe Mitchell (Republican) 53%, projected 50.2% (46–55).View full size ↗
Wisconsin 1st district House forecast: Mitchell Berman (Democrat) 47% chance to win, projected 49.6% of the vote (80% range 43–56); Bryan Steil (Republican) 53%, projected 50.4% (44–57).View full size ↗
Pennsylvania 10th district House forecast: Janelle Stelson (Democrat) 46% chance to win, projected 49.8% of the vote (80% range 46–53); Scott Perry (Republican) 54%, projected 50.2% (47–54).View full size ↗
Ohio 10th district House forecast: Kristina Knickerbocker (Democrat) 46% chance to win, projected 49.6% of the vote (80% range 45–54); Mike Turner (Republican) 54%, projected 50.4% (46–55).View full size ↗
South Carolina 1st district House forecast: Nancy Lacore (Democrat) 46% chance to win, projected 49.5% of the vote (80% range 44–55); Jenny Costa Honeycutt (Republican) 54%, projected 50.5% (45–56).View full size ↗
Ohio 15th district House forecast: Don Leonard (Democrat) 44% chance to win, projected 49.5% of the vote (80% range 45–54); Mike Carey (Republican) 56%, projected 50.5% (46–55).View full size ↗
Montana 1st district House forecast: Sam Forstag (Democrat) 42% chance to win, projected 49.4% of the vote (80% range 46–53); Aaron Flint (Republican) 58%, projected 50.6% (47–54).View full size ↗

Lean D · 15 races (leader 60–79%)

Ohio 9th district House forecast: Marcy Kaptur (Democrat) 60% chance to win, projected 51.0% of the vote (80% range 46–56); Derek Merrin (Republican) 40%, projected 49.0% (44–54).View full size ↗
Iowa 3rd district House forecast: Sarah Trone Garriott (Democrat) 60% chance to win, projected 51.3% of the vote (80% range 45–58); Zach Nunn (Republican) 40%, projected 48.7% (42–55).View full size ↗
New Jersey 7th district House forecast: Rebecca Bennett (Democrat) 63% chance to win, projected 51.6% of the vote (80% range 45–58); Thomas Kean Jr. (Republican) 37%, projected 48.4% (42–55).View full size ↗
Florida 25th district House forecast: Jared Moskowitz (Democrat) 64% chance to win, projected 51.4% of the vote (80% range 47–56); Scott Singer (Republican) 36%, projected 48.6% (44–53).View full size ↗
Kentucky 6th district House forecast: Zach Dembo (Democrat) 64% chance to win, projected 51.0% of the vote (80% range 47–55); Ralph Alvarado (Republican) 36%, projected 49.0% (45–53).View full size ↗
Arizona 6th district House forecast: JoAnna Mendoza (Democrat) 65% chance to win, projected 51.4% of the vote (80% range 47–56); Juan Ciscomani (Republican) 35%, projected 48.6% (44–53).View full size ↗
Washington 3rd district House forecast: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) 66% chance to win, projected 51.5% of the vote (80% range 47–56); John Braun (Republican) 34%, projected 48.5% (44–53).View full size ↗
California 22nd district House forecast: Randy Villegas (Democrat) 67% chance to win, projected 52.2% of the vote (80% range 46–59); David Valadao (Republican) 33%, projected 47.8% (41–54).View full size ↗
Arizona 1st district House forecast: Amish Shah (Democrat) 68% chance to win, projected 51.7% of the vote (80% range 47–56); Jay Feely (Republican) 32%, projected 48.3% (44–53).View full size ↗
Colorado 8th district House forecast: Manny Rutinel (Democrat) 70% chance to win, projected 52.8% of the vote (80% range 46–59); Gabe Evans (Republican) 30%, projected 47.2% (41–54).View full size ↗
Virginia 2nd district House forecast: Elaine Luria (Democrat) 70% chance to win, projected 51.9% of the vote (80% range 47–57); Jen Kiggans (Republican) 30%, projected 48.1% (43–53).View full size ↗
Pennsylvania 8th district House forecast: Paige Cognetti (Democrat) 70% chance to win, projected 51.5% of the vote (80% range 48–55); Rob Bresnahan (Republican) 30%, projected 48.5% (45–52).View full size ↗
Texas 15th district House forecast: Bobby Pulido (Democrat) 74% chance to win, projected 52.6% of the vote (80% range 47–58); Monica De La Cruz (Republican) 26%, projected 47.4% (42–53).View full size ↗
Texas 34th district House forecast: Vicente Gonzalez (Democrat) 76% chance to win, projected 53.0% of the vote (80% range 48–58); Eric Flores (Republican) 24%, projected 47.0% (42–52).View full size ↗
Ohio 1st district House forecast: Greg Landsman (Democrat) 78% chance to win, projected 52.8% of the vote (80% range 48–57); Eric Conroy (Republican) 22%, projected 47.2% (43–52).View full size ↗

Lean R · 27 races (leader 60–79%)

Arizona 2nd district House forecast: Jonathan Nez (Democrat) 39% chance to win, projected 49.0% of the vote (80% range 44–54); Eli Crane (Republican) 61%, projected 51.0% (46–56).View full size ↗
Minnesota 1st district House forecast: Jake Johnson (Democrat) 39% chance to win, projected 49.0% of the vote (80% range 44–54); Brad Finstad (Republican) 61%, projected 51.0% (46–56).View full size ↗
Colorado 3rd district House forecast: Dwayne Romero (Democrat) 39% chance to win, projected 49.0% of the vote (80% range 44–54); Jeff Hurd (Republican) 61%, projected 51.0% (46–56).View full size ↗
Texas 35th district House forecast: Johnny Garcia (Democrat) 38% chance to win, projected 49.0% of the vote (80% range 45–53); Carlos De La Cruz (Republican) 62%, projected 51.0% (47–55).View full size ↗
Virginia 1st district House forecast: Shannon Taylor (Democrat) 37% chance to win, projected 48.8% of the vote (80% range 44–53); Rob Wittman (Republican) 63%, projected 51.2% (47–56).View full size ↗
New York 1st district House forecast: Chris Gallant (Democrat) 37% chance to win, projected 48.2% of the vote (80% range 42–55); Nick LaLota (Republican) 63%, projected 51.8% (45–58).View full size ↗
North Carolina 1st district House forecast: Don Davis (Democrat) 35% chance to win, projected 48.8% of the vote (80% range 44–53); Laurie Buckhout (Republican) 65%, projected 51.2% (47–56).View full size ↗
Colorado 5th district House forecast: Jessica Killin (Democrat) 35% chance to win, projected 48.6% of the vote (80% range 44–53); Jeff Crank (Republican) 65%, projected 51.4% (47–56).View full size ↗
Michigan 4th district House forecast: Sean McCann (Democrat) 34% chance to win, projected 48.5% of the vote (80% range 44–53); Bill Huizenga (Republican) 66%, projected 51.5% (47–56).View full size ↗
Maine 2nd district House forecast: Matthew Dunlap (Democrat) 31% chance to win, projected 48.2% of the vote (80% range 44–53); Paul LePage (Republican) 69%, projected 51.8% (47–56).View full size ↗
Pennsylvania 1st district House forecast: Bob Harvie (Democrat) 30% chance to win, projected 48.5% of the vote (80% range 45–52); Brian Fitzpatrick (Republican) 70%, projected 51.5% (48–55).View full size ↗
Alabama 2nd district House forecast: Shomari Figures (Democrat) 30% chance to win, projected 48.1% of the vote (80% range 43–53); Rhett Marques (Republican) 70%, projected 51.9% (47–57).View full size ↗
Florida 4th district House forecast: LaShonda Holloway (Democrat) 29% chance to win, projected 47.2% of the vote (80% range 41–54); Aaron Bean (Republican) 71%, projected 52.8% (46–59).View full size ↗
Florida 16th district House forecast: Kelly Kirschner (Democrat) 29% chance to win, projected 47.1% of the vote (80% range 40–54); Sydney Gruters (Republican) 71%, projected 52.9% (46–60).View full size ↗
Florida 22nd district House forecast: Pia Dandiya (Democrat) 28% chance to win, projected 47.9% of the vote (80% range 43–53); Casey Askar (Republican) 72%, projected 52.1% (47–57).View full size ↗
Texas 23rd district House forecast: Katy Padilla Stout (Democrat) 28% chance to win, projected 47.5% of the vote (80% range 42–53); Brandon Herrera (Republican) 72%, projected 52.5% (47–58).View full size ↗
Florida 7th district House forecast: Bale Dalton (Democrat) 27% chance to win, projected 47.8% of the vote (80% range 43–52); Ryan Elijah (Republican) 73%, projected 52.2% (48–57).View full size ↗
North Carolina 3rd district House forecast: Raymond Smith Jr. (Democrat) 26% chance to win, projected 46.2% of the vote (80% range 39–54); Greg Murphy (Republican) 74%, projected 53.8% (46–61).View full size ↗
North Carolina 7th district House forecast: Kimberly Hardy (Democrat) 26% chance to win, projected 46.2% of the vote (80% range 39–54); David Rouzer (Republican) 74%, projected 53.8% (46–61).View full size ↗
Virginia 5th district House forecast: Tom Perriello (Democrat) 25% chance to win, projected 46.5% of the vote (80% range 40–53); John McGuire (Republican) 75%, projected 53.5% (47–60).View full size ↗
Texas 9th district House forecast: Leticia Gutierrez (Democrat) 25% chance to win, projected 47.2% of the vote (80% range 42–53); Alex Mealer (Republican) 75%, projected 52.8% (47–58).View full size ↗
Florida 9th district House forecast: Darren Soto (Democrat) 24% chance to win, projected 47.5% of the vote (80% range 43–52); Dan Green (Republican) 76%, projected 52.5% (48–57).View full size ↗
Florida 11th district House forecast: James Pericola (Democrat) 23% chance to win, projected 46.2% of the vote (80% range 40–53); Joe Strada (Republican) 77%, projected 53.8% (47–60).View full size ↗
Indiana 5th district House forecast: J. D. Ford (Democrat) 23% chance to win, projected 47.2% of the vote (80% range 43–52); Victoria Spartz (Republican) 77%, projected 52.8% (48–57).View full size ↗
Arizona 8th district House forecast: Bernadette Greene-Placentia (Democrat) 22% chance to win, projected 46.0% of the vote (80% range 39–53); Abraham Hamadeh (Republican) 78%, projected 54.0% (47–61).View full size ↗
Florida 13th district House forecast: Leela Gray (Democrat) 21% chance to win, projected 47.1% of the vote (80% range 42–52); Anna Paulina Luna (Republican) 79%, projected 52.9% (48–58).View full size ↗
Colorado 4th district House forecast: Eileen Laubacher (Democrat) 21% chance to win, projected 45.8% of the vote (80% range 39–52); Lauren Boebert (Republican) 79%, projected 54.2% (48–61).View full size ↗

Likely · 1 race (leader 80–94%)

Wisconsin 8th district House forecast: Rick Crosson (Democrat) 20% chance to win, projected 45.6% of the vote (80% range 39–52); Tony Wied (Republican) 80%, projected 54.4% (48–61).View full size ↗

Full forecast

Sapien 2026 Midterms forecast (PDF)22 pages · SHA-256 2fd057fec9a08d3155980cca4ecb4c63358b13d85979d67d135430fb346956a8
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